香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對二零零二年的回顧與前瞻、市民最關注的問題，及其對董建華施政方針滿意程度的最新調查結果。此外，網站亦同時公佈市民對現時政治、經濟及社會環境滿意程度的最新調查結果。鑑於是日公佈的內容已經包括有關項目在本年度的最後一次調查結果，因此，網頁內所載的數表（尤其是半年結數表）及圖表實際上可視為回歸後歷年的總結，歡迎傳媒使用。

《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為二零零三年一月七日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對台灣獨立、對兩岸統一、及對其身份認同感的最新調查結果。此外，為配合未來的發展，《民意網站》將於二零零三年一月一日改版，並會增加多項欄目，歡迎賜教。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新（十二月十三至十八日）調查結果，於過去一年，三成九被訪市民感到生活快樂、二成七感到不快樂、表示「一半半」的則佔三成三；於市民對香港去年發展的評價方面，六成二表示不滿、一成四滿意、一成九表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔百分之五。其中，不滿數字較去年同類調查上升五個百分比。

至於市民對來年的展望，三成七被訪市民預計其個人發展將會較去年為佳、二成一認為較差，二成六表示「差不多」、沒有意見者則佔一成五。另外，四成二被訪市民預期來年香港的整體發展將有所改善；認為會惡化的，佔二成八；另有一成八表示「差不多」、沒有意見者則佔一成二；相較去年的數字，對個人及香港未來一年發展抱正面態度的比率均顯著上升，升幅分別為九及十四個百分比。

調查亦發現，在千多名被訪市民中，倘若要在繁榮、自由和公平社會中作出選擇，四成七表示最希望香港成為一個繁榮的社會；希望香港成為自由及公平社會的，分別佔二成二及二成，兩者均較去年上升四個百分比。

另外，七成八被訪市民認為特區政府來年最需要處理經濟問題，比率較去年顯著上升八個百分比，是歷來最高，並遠遠拋離其他範疇。

至於市民新年願望的內容，與經濟相關的，佔四成三；與個人事業或學業有關的，則佔一成二；此外，百分之九被訪市民祝願來年世界和平；同時，願望以個人健康或社會民生為主的，各佔百分之七；不過，百分之十被訪者表示沒有任何新年願望。

於市民對特首董建華施政方針的滿意程度方面，最新數字顯示，四成三被訪市民不滿董建華的施政方針、一成四滿意、二成八表示「一半半」、沒有意見者佔一成五。數字與十一月中的調查結果非常接近。綜觀回歸後市民對董建華施政方針滿意程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），滿意數字由九七年下半年的三成三反覆下跌至近半年的一成四，並持續在低位徘徊。

至於市民現時最關注的問題，十二月中的數字顯示，七成四被訪市民表示最關心經濟問題，另有一成四表示最關心社會問題，表示最關心政治問題的，則佔五個百分比。相較九月中的數字，關心社會問題的比率下降五個百分比。綜觀回歸後市民最關注問題的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），表示關心經濟問題的比率，於九八年下半年上升至七成三的高位後，一直在六成以上徘徊，並遠遠拋離其餘兩項範疇。相反，九七年下半年最為被訪市民關注的社會問題，在九八年上半年急劇下跌之後，便開始在二成至三成之間徘徊，近年更下跌至不足二成。至於表示最關心政治問題的比率，則多年來一直保持在半成左右。

有關市民對現時政治環境的滿意程度，最新數字為二成四滿意、三成八不滿、二成表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔一成八。相較九月中的調查結果，滿意數字顯著下跌六個百分比；不滿數字則急升十個百分比，創歷史新高。綜觀回歸後市民對政治環境滿意程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），不滿數字由九七年下半年至今年上半年一直在二成半至三成之間窄幅徘徊，而近半年則顯著由二成半上升至三成三。

在三個被評的項目當中，經濟環境仍然是被訪市民最不滿的一環，最新調查發現，八成被訪市民不滿現時的經濟環境、只有六個百分比表示滿意、一成二表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔二個百分比。數字與九月中的調查結果相若。綜觀回歸後市民對經濟環境滿意程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），不滿數字於九八年下半年顯著上升至七成六的顛峰後，於九九年上半年至零一年上半年期間出現輕微跌勢，但隨即於零一年下半年大幅回升，並於近半年創下八成一的歷史新高。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象為十八歲或以上操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，各個百分比的抽樣誤差為少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

在三個被評的項目當中，經濟環境仍然是被訪市民最不滿的一環，最新調查發現，八成被訪市民不滿現時的經濟環境、只有六個百分比表示滿意、一成二表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔二個百分比。數字與九月中的調查結果相若。綜觀回歸後市民對經濟環境滿意程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），不滿數字於九八年下半年顯著上升至七成六的顛峰後，於九九年上半年至零一年上半年期間出現輕微跌勢，但隨即於零一年下半年大幅回升，並於近半年創下八成一的歷史新高。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the result of the 2002 year-ender survey, people's most concerned problems, their satisfaction with the policy direction of CE Tung Chee-hwa, and their satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions. Since today's release has already incorporated the last data point of these survey items, the media is welcome to use our tables (especially the half-yearly averages) and charts as year-end wrap-ups of these items since the 1997 handover.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be January 7, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification, as well as their ethnic identity will be released. Besides, to be in tune with the future development of this site, a re-designed "HKU POP SITE" will be officially launched on January 1, 2003, with many new items. Feedbacks and suggestions are most welcome.

According to the latest (December 13-18) figures released today, for the year past, 39% of the respondents said they were happy, 27% were not, 33% said "half-half". As for people's satisfaction with Hong Kong's development in the year past, 62% of the respondents were dissatisfied, 14% were satisfied, 19% said "half-half", while 5% did not give a definite answer. The dissatisfaction figure has increased by 5 percentage points when compared with that of a similar survey conducted one year ago.

As regards the prospect for the coming year, 37% of the respondents believed that their personal development would become better, 21% thought they would become worse off, 26% said "the same", 15% did not give a definite answer. Meanwhile, 42% of the respondents expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 28% held the opposite view, 18% said "the same", while 12% did not give a definite answer. Compared with the results obtained last year, the proportions of respondents who held a positive view in their personal development and Hong Kong's future in the coming year have increased by 9 and 14 percentage points respectively, both increases were statistically significant.

On the other hand, given the choice of a "prosperous", "free" or "fair" society, 47% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become "a prosperous society", while 22% and 20% opted for a "free" and "fair" society respectively. The latter two figures have both increased by 4 percentage points compared to those of last year.

A record high of 78% of the respondents thought that "economy" was the most important problem that the Hong Kong government should tackle next year, representing a significant increase of 8 percentage points from that of last year, and leading with a wide margin from the remaining items.

As for people's new year wishes, 43% were economic-related, 12% were related to personal career or studies, 9% opted for "world peace". Meanwhile, 7% of the respondents made wishes about personal health, while another 7% gave their wishes to people's livelihood, 10% did not make any wish.

Regarding people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction, the latest figures indicated that 43% of the respondents were dissatisfied, 14% were satisfied, 28% said "half-half", while 15% did not give a definite answer. These figures were more or less the same as those registered in mid-November. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the satisfaction figure has fluctuated downwards from 33% registered in the second half of 1997 to 14% recorded in the second half of this year, and has remained at the low end for quite a while.

As for people's most concerned problems, the latest findings obtained in mid-December showed that 74% of the respondents were most concerned with economic problems, 14% were most concerned with social problems, while 5% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Compared with the results of mid-September, the figure for social problems has dropped by 5 percentage points. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the proportion of respondents who were most concerned with economic problems has been fluctuating above 60% after it peaked at 73% in the second half of 1998, way beyond the other two problems. On the other hand, the corresponding figure for social problems has remained to fluctuate at the lower end of 20% to 30%, after its significant drop in the first half of 1998. In recent years, it has dropped even further to less than 20%. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents most concerned with political problems has remained very stable at around 5%.

With respect to people's satisfaction with the current political condition, the latest results indicated that 24% of the respondents were satisfied, 38% were not, 20% said "half-half", while 18% did not give a definite answer. Compared with the findings obtained in mid-September, the satisfaction figure has dropped by 6 percentage points, which was statistically significant, while the dissatisfaction figure has rapidly increased by 10 percentage points to its record high. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the dissatisfaction figure has been fluctuating between a narrow range of 25% to 30%, until the first half of this year, when it went up from 25% to 33%.

Of the three areas of concern, people continued to feel most dissatisfied with the economic condition. The latest results showed that 80% of the respondents were dissatisfied, 6% were satisfied, 12% said "half-half", while 2% did not give a definite answer. These results were similar to those of mid-September. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), the dissatisfaction figure first reached a peak of 76% in the second half of 1998, followed by a gentle drop between the first half of 1990 and the first half of 2001. It then rebounded in the second half of 2001 to reach its historic high of 81% in the second half of this year.

With regard to the social condition, 42% of the respondents were dissatisfied, 33% were satisfied, 23% said "half-half", while 2% did not give a definite answer. Compared with the results of mid-September, the satisfaction figure has increased by 6 percentage points, which was statistically significant. On a macro level (please see the charts with half-yearly averages), a general upward trend was observed for the dissatisfaction figure, from 27% in the second half of 1997 to 42% in the second half of this year.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.