香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對特首董建華的最新評分、市民對特區政府表現的滿意程度，及其對特區及北京中央政府信任程度的最新調查結果。此外，網站亦同時公佈市民對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。鑑於是日公佈的內容已經包括有關項目在本年度的最後一次調查結果，因此，網頁內所載的半年結數表及圖表實際上可視為回歸後歷年的總結，歡迎傳媒使用。

《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為十二月三十一日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對二零零二年的回顧與前瞻、市民最關注的問題，及其對董建華施政方針滿意程度的最新調查結果。此外，網站亦將同時公佈市民對現時政治、經濟及社會環境滿意程度的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新調查結果，於十二月中（十二月十三至十八日），市民對特首董建華的評分為47.0分，較十二月初的數字下跌1.0分，跌幅在統計上並不顯著。綜觀回歸後特首董建華評分的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），有關數字自九七年下半年起輾轉下跌，並於本年度下半年跌至其上任以來的新低；其下半年平均分為48.4分，較上半年顯著下跌5.6分。

至於市民對特區政府的滿意程度，最新數字為四成八不滿、一成七滿意、三成表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔百分之四。數字與十一月中的調查結果差異不大。綜觀回歸後市民對特區政府滿意程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），滿意數字於九八年上半年急跌後持續於二成至三成之間徘徊，並於近半年跌至一成八的新低。

於市民對特區政府的信任程度方面，十二月中的最新數字為三成六信任、三成四不信任、二成二表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔百分之七。數字與十月中的同類調查結果相若。綜觀回歸後市民對特區政府信任程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），不信任數字於九七年下半年的一成左右反覆上升，至近半年所創下的三成半新高，數字並於半年內急升十三個百分比。

另外，市民對北京中央政府的信任程度，最新數字為四成五信任、二成五不信任、一成九謂「一半半」。其中，表示信任的比率較十月中上升四個百分比，持續高於特區政府的相關數字。綜觀回歸後市民對北京中央政府信任程度的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），表示信任的比率穩步上升，並於本年度上半年創下四成九新高，下半年則回落至四成一。

同時，十二月中的數字亦顯示，表示對香港前途「有信心」及「沒有信心」的被訪市民，比率相同，各佔四成二。綜觀回歸後市民對香港前途信心的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），表示沒有信心的比率呈上升之勢，於近半年更創下四成四新高，並首次超越有信心的半年平均數。

至於對中國的前途，八成四被訪市民表示有信心，遠遠拋離對香港前途信心的水平。另一方面，五成一被訪市民對一國兩制有信心；表示沒有信心的，佔三成五。數字與十月中的調查結果差異不大。綜觀回歸後市民對一國兩制信心的走勢（可參閱半年結圖表），表示有信心的數字呈徐徐下跌之勢，由九七年下半年的六成四反覆下跌至近半年的五成三，但仍比沒有信心者高出很多。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象為十八歲或以上操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，特首董建華評分的抽樣誤差為正負1.4分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則為少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, as well as their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". Since today's release has already incorporated the last data point of these survey items, the media is welcome to use the half-yearly averages contained in our tables and charts as year-end wrap-ups of these items since the 1997 handover.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 31, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the result of the 2002 year-ender survey, people's most concerned problems, and their satisfaction with the policy direction of CE Tung Chee-hwa will be released. We will also release the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions.

According to the latest figures released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in mid-December (December 13-18) was 47.0 marks, representing a drop of 1.0 mark from that of early December, which was not statistically significant. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), CE's ratings have been decreasing since the second half of 1997, to a record low of 48.4 marks in the second half of this year, which was a significant drop of 5.6 marks from that of the first half of the year.

Regarding people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, 48% of the respondents were dissatisfied with its performance, 17% were satisfied, 30% said "half-half", while 4% did not give a definite answer. The results were similar to those obtained in mid-November. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government has been fluctuating between 20% and 30% after its dramatic fall in the first half of 1998. It has dropped to a record low of 18% in the second half of this year.

As regards people's trust in the HKSAR Government, the latest figures registered in mid-December showed that 36% of the respondents trusted the government, 34% did not, 22% said "half-half", while 7% did not give a definite answer. No significant difference was observed when compared with the results registered in mid-October. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's distrust in the HKSAR Government has fluctuated upward from around 10% registered in the second half of 1997, to a record high of 35% in the second half of this year. The figure has increased rapidly by 13 percentage points in half a year's time.

On the other hand, our latest results revealed that 45% of the respondents trusted the Beijing Central Government, 25% did not, while 19% said "half-half". The trust level has increased by 4 percentage points when compared with that of mid-October, and continued to be higher than the corresponding figure for the local government. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), people's trust in the Beijing Central Government has been increasing steadily after the handover to reach a record high of 49% in the first half of this year. It then dropped to 41% in the second half of this year.

Meanwhile, according to the findings obtained in mid-December, there was an equal split between respondents who were confident in Hong Kong's future and those who were not, each at 42%. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), the proportion of respondents who were not confident was on an upward trend after the handover. It reached a record high of 44% in the second half of this year, and out-numbered the average confidence level for the first time.

Regarding people's confidence in the future of China, 84% expressed confidence, which was much higher than the corresponding figure for Hong Kong's future. On the other hand, 51% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems", whilst 35% were not. These results were similar to those obtained in mid-October. On a macro level (please see the chart with half-yearly averages), a slowly declining trend was observed, from 64% in the second half of 1997 to 53% in the second half of this year, although the figures are still quite positive.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa is plus/minus 1.4 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.