香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對特首董建華第六份施政報告的期望，總結市民對特首董建華過往五份施政報告的評價，及其對董建華施政方針滿意程度的最新調查結果。最後兩個項目是首次在《民意網站》發放。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為十二月二十四日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對特首董建華的最新評分、市民對特區政府表現的滿意程度，及其對特區及北京中央政府信任程度的最新調查結果。此外，網站亦將同時公佈市民對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新調查結果，於十二月初（十二月二至六日），四成四被訪市民期望特首董建華在明年一月初發表的第六份施政報告中重點處理經濟問題，屬於歷來最高；二成九則期望報告重點處理勞工及就業問題，與前者合計有七成三之多；相較去年十月的同類調查結果，經濟發展及就業情況仍然是被訪市民最關注的範疇，而處理房屋問題的優先次序已明顯下降，今年的排名更在福利問題之後。

於市民對特首董建華去年公佈的施政報告的評價方面，九月中（九月十二至十七日）的數字為三成四不滿、一成二滿意、二成八表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔二成七。由於特首董建華今年延遲發表施政報告，該等數字亦是本系列調查的最後數字。綜觀市民對董建華過往五份施政報告評價的趨勢（可參考五年來按月計算圖表），滿意數字由九七年十月董建華剛公佈首份施政報告時的四成半相對高位輾轉下跌，至近年來在一至二成之間窄幅徘徊，期間每每受到施政報告及財政預算案的刺激而短暫上升，然後回落。

由於市民對施政報告的印象可能會隨時間而淡忘，民意研究計劃因此亦以市民對特首董建華「施政方針的滿意程度」作為另一指標，平行測試。結果顯示，在十一月中（十一月十三至二十日），四成三被訪市民不滿董建華的施政方針、一成四滿意、二成九表示「一半半」、沒有意見者有一成四。綜觀市民對董建華施政方針的滿意程度（可參考五年來按次、按月、按施政年度、及按半年計算的圖表），滿意數字已由九七年九月的頂峰三成九反覆下跌至近來的一成至成半之間，持續在低位徘徊。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，全部屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，各個百分比的抽樣誤差為少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest results on people's expectation of the sixth policy address of CE Tung Chee-hwa, their satisfaction with his five policy addresses in the past, and with his policy direction. The last two items are released for the first time. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 24, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, as well as their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, will be released. We will also release the latest findings on people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems".

According to the latest (December 2-6) figures released today, as regards people's expectation of CE Tung Chee-hwa's sixth policy address to be announced in early January 2003, 44% of the respondents wished he would take "economic development" as his first priority, which is a record high. Another 29% chose "labour and employment", giving a total of 73% when combined with the first item. Compared with the results obtained in a similar survey conducted in October 2001, "economic development" and "labour and employment" have remained to be two overwhelming areas of concern. "Housing" has obviously declined in priority, it even ranked behind "social welfare" this year.

Regarding people's satisfaction with CE's last policy address, the latest figures registered in mid-September (September 12-17) indicated that 34% of the respondents were dissatisfied, 12% were satisfied, 28% said "half-half", while 27% did not give a definite answer. Because CE has postponed the announcement of his sixth policy address this year, these figures are also the last ones in our series. On a macro level (please see the chart with monthly average figures for the past five years), the satisfaction figure has decreased from a relatively high level of 45% registered soon after CE announced his first policy address in October 1997, to the narrow gap between 10% to 20% recorded in recent years. These figures were normally stimulated to short-term rises after policy addresses and budget talks, and dropped back soon.

Because people's impression of the policy addresses would be blurred as their memory faded, our POP Team has constructed another indicator to measure people's satisfaction with CE's "policy direction". Our latest figures registered in mid-November (November 13-20) showed that 43% of the respondents were dissatisfied with CE's policy direction, 14% were satisfied, 29% said "half-half", while 14% did not give a definite answer. On a macro level (please see the relevant charts with per-poll figures, half-yearly averages, monthly averages, as well as averages per policy year), the satisfaction figure has decreased from the peak of 39% registered in September 1997, down to the level of around 10% to 15% recorded in recent months, and kept fluctuating at the low end.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.