香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對「民主」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」四項社會指標，及其對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為十一月十二日星期二下午二時，屆時將會發放市民對特首董建華及各問責制主要官員的最新評分。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈有關市民對「民主」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」四項社會指標的最新（十月十三至十六日）評分，以十分為滿分，市民對「自由」指標的評分明顯高於其餘三項，最新數字是7.06分；對民主程度的評價則是6.06分。相較七月初的結果，市民對「自由」及「民主」兩項指標的評價分別輕微下跌0.08及0.05分，雖然跌幅在統計上並不顯著，但兩項評分已是四月初以來連續兩次下跌，「自由」指標的累積跌幅為0.40分，而「民主」指標則累積下跌0.25分。另一方面，市民對「安定」及「繁榮」兩項指標的評價分別為6.26及5.70分，較七月初的數字分別上升0.07及0.17分，但前者的升幅在統計上並不顯著。

另外，十月中的數字顯示，四成四被訪市民表示對香港前途有信心，表示沒有信心者佔四成三，信心水平較八月中上升三個百分比。至於對中國的前途，八成二被訪市民表示有信心，較八月中的數字上升四個百分比，同時遠遠拋離對香港前途信心的水平。另一方面，五成一被訪市民對一國兩制有信心；表示沒有信心的，佔三成七。信心水平較八月中下跌五個百分比。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，各項社會指標評分之抽樣誤差為正負0.12分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest results of the four subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability", as well as the latest findings on people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems". POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be November 12, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

According to the latest (October 13-16) figures released today, of the four subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability", people were much more positive about the degree of freedom than the other three items. On a scale from 0-10, the latest score for freedom was 7.06 marks, while democracy scored 6.06 marks. Compared with the figures registered in early July, both ratings of freedom and democracy have slightly dropped by 0.08 and 0.05 marks respectively, which were not statistically significant. However, these two ratings have dropped for two consecutive times since early April, with accumulative decreases of 0.40 and 0.25 marks respectively. On the other hand, stability and prosperity scored 6.26 and 5.70 marks respectively, representing corresponding increases of 0.07 and 0.17 marks, the former of which was not statistically significant.

Meanwhile, according to the findings obtained in mid-October, 44% of the respondents were confident in Hong Kong's future, whereas 43% were not. The confidence level has increased by 3 percentage points from that of mid-August. Regarding people's confidence in the future of China, 82% expressed confidence, representing an increase of 4 percentage points from that of mid-August, and also much higher than the corresponding figure for Hong Kong's future. On the other hand, 51% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems", whilst 37% were not. The confidence level has decreased by 5 percentage points compared with the results obtained in mid-August.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the social indicators is plus/minus 0.12 mark, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.