香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對特首董建華的最新評分、市民對特區政府表現的滿意程度，及其對特區及北京中央政府信任程度的最新調查結果。另外，網站亦同時公佈有關香港法治狀況的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為十一月五日星期二下午二時，屆時將會發放市民對「民主」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」四項社會指標，及其對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新調查結果，市民對特首董建華的評分，十月中（十月十三至十六日）的評分為49.2分，較十月初的數字微升0.2分，雖然升幅在統計上並不顯著，但已是八月中以來連續四次上升，累積升幅為2.2分。至於市民對特區政府的滿意程度，最新數字為五成不滿、一成九滿意、二成八表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔百分之四。數字與九月中的調查結果差異不大。

另一方面，市民對特區政府的信任程度，自年初以來首次回升，十月中的最新數字為三成六信任、三成四不信任、二成五表示「一半半」、沒有意見者則佔百分之五。相較八月中的調查結果，表示信任的比率上升四個百分比，表示不信任的則下降三個百分比。

另外，市民對北京中央政府的信任程度，最新數字為四成一信任、二成六不信任、二成二謂「一半半」。其中，表示信任的比率較八月中上升四個百分比，持續高於特區政府的相關數字。

至於有關香港法治狀況一系列問題的調查結果方面，市民對法庭的公正程度，以十分為滿分，最新數字為6.97分，較七月初的結果顯著上升0.27分；而市民對法治程度及司法制度的公平程度的評分則分別為6.61及6.47分，兩者均較七月初的結果輕微上升0.05分，升幅在統計上並不顯著。由於法庭就藝人謝霆鋒串謀妨礙司法公正一案的宣判日期為有關調查的最後一天，因此有關數字可能並未反映事件後期發展的影響。

最後，市民對終審法院首席法官李國能的最新評分為59.7分，較七月中輕微下降0.9分，跌幅在統計上並不顯著。值得一提的是，巿民對李國能的認知率偏低，約半數被訪市民未能對其作出評分。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，特首董建華及終審法院首席法官李國能評分的抽樣誤差均為正負1.4分，三項有關法治狀況的指標評分之抽樣誤差為正負0.12分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, as well as the latest findings from a series of questions related to the rule of law in Hong Kong. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be November 5, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of the four subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability" will be released. We will also release the latest findings on people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems".

According to the latest figures released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in mid-October (October 13-16) was 49.2 marks, representing a slight increase of 0.2 mark from that of early October, which was statistically insignificant. However, the figure has increased for four consecutive times since mid-August, with an accumulative increase of 2.2 marks. Regarding people's appraisal of the HKSAR Government, 50% of the respondents were dissatisfied with its performance, 19% were satisfied, 28% said "half-half", while 4% did not give a definite answer. The results were similar to those obtained in mid-September.

On the other hand, people's trust in the HKSAR Government marked its first rebound since the beginning of this year. The latest figures registered in mid-October showed that 36% of the respondents trusted the government, 34% did not, 25% said "half-half", while 5% did not give a definite answer. When compared with results registered in mid-August, the trust level has increased by 4 percentage points, whereas the distrust level has dropped by 3 percentage points.

As regards people's trust in the Beijing Central Government, the latest results revealed that 41% of the respondents trusted the Beijing Central Government, 26% did not, while 22% said "half-half". The trust level has increased by 4 percentage points when compared with that of mid-August, and continued to be higher than the corresponding figure for the local government.

Regarding the results of a series of questions related to the rule of law, on a scale of 0-10, the latest score of people's appraisal of the impartiality of the courts was 6.97 marks, representing a significant increase of 0.27 mark from early July. Meanwhile, people's appraisal of compliance with the rule of law and the fairness of the judicial system were 6.61 and 6.47 marks respectively, showing a slight increase of 0.05 mark for both figures, which was statistically insignificant. Because the Court's sentencing of local artist Tse Ting-fung after he was convicted of conspiring to pervert the course of justice fell on the last day of our fieldwork period, the findings may not be able to reflect the last stage of the case's development.

Finally, the latest popularity rating of Chief Justice Andrew Li Kowk-nang was 59.7 marks, representing a drop of 0.9 mark from that of mid-July, which was statistically insignificant. His recognition rate, however, was not high, as nearly half of the respondents could not give him a rating.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and CJ Andrew Li Kowk-nang is plus/minus 1.4 marks, that of the three indicators related to the rule of law is plus/minus 0.12 mark, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.