香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放十大內地及台灣政治人物的最新評分、市民對台灣獨立及兩岸統一信心的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為十月十五日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對特首董建華及各問責制主要官員的最新評分。

根據《民意網站》今日發放的最新調查結果，本年九月中（九月十二至十七日）市民對內地及台灣政治人物的支持度排名，首位是朱鎔基，得75.3分；其次是江澤民，得65.7分；第三至第五位則分別是錢其琛、胡錦濤及馬英九，分別得64.7、63.1及62.4分；至於第六至第十位的排名，依次為李鵬、連戰、陳水扁、李登輝及呂秀蓮，全部得分均低於50分的水平。市民對首五位政治人物的平均分為66.2分，而首十位則為53.7分；與上次在三月中進行的同類調查的結果相比，兩者分別下跌1.6及2.9分。

至於市民對台灣獨立的意見，九月中的最新數字為七成反對、一成三贊成、一成七沒有意見。相較六月中的數字，反對者上升四個百分比，贊成者則下跌三個百分比。調查亦發現，四成八被訪市民對兩岸統一有信心；表示沒有信心的，佔三成六；其餘一成七則沒有表示意見。數字與六月中的調查結果差異不大。

有關「十大內地及台灣政治人物」評分調查的方法，在網頁內「調查方法」的欄目中已有詳述。是次調查被評分的政治人物，皆於九月初進行的提名調查中在未經提示下獲得最多被訪者提名的政治人物。在該項提名調查中，被訪者可說出多至十名最熟悉的內地及台灣政治人物，結果首五位最多被訪者提及的政治人物依次為江澤民、陳水扁、朱鎔基、馬英九及呂秀蓮，餘下名單請參閱有關數表。最多被提及的十二名政治人物會進入第二階段評分調查，在九月中進行的第二階段評分調查中，被訪者就所有入選政治人物以零至一百分進行個別評分，零分代表絕對不支持，一百分代表絕對支持，五十分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的兩名政治人物再被剔除，之後再按十名政治人物所得的支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大政治人物。《民意網站》已把一九九七年六月開始的各次提名調查結果加入網站，方便各界人士參考。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，受訪人數超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，十大內地及台灣政治人物中各個評分的的抽樣誤差為少於正負1.8分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest ratings of the top ten political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, as well as people's opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be October 15, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

According to the latest figures released today, among the best known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, Zhu Rongji obtained the highest support rating in mid-September (September 12-17) with 75.3 marks, followed by Jiang Zemin with 65.7 marks. Qian Qichen, Hu Jintao and Ma Ying-Jeou ranked third, fourth and fifth, with 64.7, 63.1 and 62.4 marks respectively. The sixth to the tenth ranks fell to Li Peng, Lien Chan, Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui and Lu Hsiu-lien correspondingly, all with less than 50 marks. The mean score obtained by the top five political figures was 66.2 marks, while that for the top ten was 53.7 marks. Compared to the results registered in a similar survey conducted in mid-March this year, mean scores for the top five and top ten political figures have dropped by 1.6 and 2.9 marks respectively.

As regards people's opinion towards the independence of Taiwan, the latest results obtained in mid-September showed that 70% of the respondents opposed, 13% agreed, while 17% did not give a definite answer. When compared with the results of mid-June, the proportion of respondents who opposed has increased by 4 percentage points, whereas a drop of 3 percentage points was registered for those who agreed. Results also revealed that 48% of the respondents were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait, 36% were not, and the remaining 17% did not give a definite answer. These figures were more or less the same as those registered in mid-June.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Jiang Zemin, Chen Shui-bian, Zhu Rongji, Ma Ying-jeou and Lu Hsiu-lien were the top five figures most frequently mentioned. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The twelve most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining ten were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top ten political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all support ratings for the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan is less than plus/minus 1.8 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.