香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對最熟悉政治團體的最新評分、及其對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為九月十日星期二下午二時，屆時將會發放市民對特首董建華及各問責制主要官員的最新評分。網站亦會同時公佈市民對香港新聞自由的滿意程度及其對香港傳媒整體公信力評分的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新調查結果，在八月中（八月十四至十九日），市民對各大政治團體的最新評分，排名首三位是工聯會、職工盟及民協，分別得57.8、56.9及54.8分；民主黨及民建聯則排行第四及第五位，兩者的得分為52.5及52.4分。至於第六位至第九位的排名，依次為自由黨、前線、支聯會及四五行動。由於名列第十位的政治團體之認知度不足五成，故其評分被剔除。（詳見下文及網頁內「調查方法」一欄。）被訪市民對首五位政治團體的平均評分為54.9分，與五月中的同類調查結果相約。

另外，八月中的數字顯示，四成八被訪市民表示對香港前途沒有信心，數字創歷史新高，並首次超越有信心的比率；另有四成一被訪市民表示對香港前途有信心，數字自四月開始連續三次下跌，累積跌幅達十五個百分比。至於市民對中國前途的信心，八月中的數字為七成八有信心，較六月中上升五個百分比，同時遠遠拋離對香港前途信心的水平。另一方面，五成六被訪市民對一國兩制有信心；表示沒有信心的，佔三成一，與六月中的數字差距不大。

有關「市民最熟悉政治團體」評分調查的方法，在網頁內「調查方法」的欄目中已有詳述。是次調查被評分的政治團體，皆於首階段在八月初進行的提名調查中在未經提示下獲得最多被訪者提名的政治團體。在該項提名調查中，被訪者可說出多至十個最熟悉的政治團體，結果首五個最多被訪者提及的政治團體分別是民主黨、民建聯、自由黨、前線及民協，餘下名單請參閱有關數表。最多被提及的十二個政治團體則進入第二階段評分調查。在八月中進行的第二階段評分調查中，被訪者就所有入選政治團體以零至一百分進行個別評分，零分代表絕對不支持，一百分代表絕對支持，五十分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的兩個政治團體被剔除，餘下十大政治團體。最後，認知率不及50%的政團亦被剔除。須要說明，由於香港沒有政黨法，政治團體的定義相當含糊，而該等團體亦經常消長更替，因此有關調查在提名階段經常出現一些不切實際的團體名稱。為免滲入主觀判斷，除了一些明顯地不存在或者已經解散的團體外，研究隊只會在提名階段後才核實入選團體是否屬於社會人士公認的政治團體。《民意網站》已把二零零零年開始的各次提名調查結果加入網站，方便各界人士參閱調查每一階段的進程。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，全部屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，各項調查的受訪人數都超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，政治團體中各個評分的抽樣誤差為少於正負1.8分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest figures on the ratings of the most well-known political groups, people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems". POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be September 10, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released. We will also release the latest results on people's satisfaction with the freedom of press and their appraisal of the credibility of the news media in Hong Kong.

As regards the latest (August 14-19) ratings of the most well-known political groups, the top three on the list were Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), attaining 57.8, 56.9 and 54.8 marks respectively. Democratic Party (DP) and Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) ranked the fourth and the fifth, with support ratings of 52.5 and 52.4 marks respectively. The sixth to the ninth ranks fell to Liberal Party (LP), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA) correspondingly. Since the tenth-ranking political group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it was dropped from the list. (For details, please refer to the explanations in the subsequent paragraph, as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page.) The mean score obtained by the top five political groups was 54.9 marks, fairly similar to that obtained in mid-May.

Furthermore, the latest results of mid-August revealed that 48% of the respondents had no confidence in the future of Hong Kong. The figure has reached a record high, and for the first time has overtaken the "confidence" figure. Only 41% of the respondents were confident in the future of Hong Kong, which has dropped for three consecutive times since April. The accumulated drop was 15 percentage points. With respect to people's confidence in the future of China, the figures registered in mid-August showed that 78% expressed confidence, which was an increase of 5 percentage points from that of mid-June, and was much higher than that for Hong Kong's future. On the other hand, 56% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems", 31% were not. These figures have remained stable over the past two months.

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early August. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The twelve most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage of the survey, which was conducted in mid-August. During that second stage survey, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, except for some obviously non-existent or disbanded groups, our research team will only eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the result of all naming surveys conducted since year 2000.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the ratings of the most well-known political groups is less than plus/minus 1.8 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.