香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對特首董建華的最新評分、市民對特區政府的滿意程度、及市民對特區及北京中央政府信任程度的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為九月三日星期二下午二時，屆時將會發放市民對最熟悉政治團體的最新評分、及其對中港前途及一國兩制信心的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的調查結果，特首董建華的評分連續兩個月下跌，八月中（八月十四至十九日）的最新數字為47.0分，創歷史新低。至於市民對特區政府的滿意程度，最新數字為一成六滿意、五成二不滿、二成六表示「一半半」、沒有意見者佔百分之六。不滿比率較七月份數字明顯上升九個百分比，達到歷史新高。

另一方面，市民對特區政府的信任程度自年初開始不斷回落，八月中的最新數字為三成一被訪市民表示信任特區政府，不信任者則攀升至三成七，屬歷史新高，並首次超越信任比率。

至於市民對北京中央政府的信任程度，最新數字為三成七信任、二成八不信任、二成四謂「一半半」。信任比率較六月中的數字下跌八個百分比，但仍然保持高於特區政府。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，全部屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，各項調查的受訪人數都超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，特首董建華評分的抽樣誤差為正負1.2分，而各個百分比的抽樣誤差則少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest figures on the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government as well as their trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments. POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be September 3, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the ratings of the most well-known political groups, people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems" will be released.

According to the survey findings released today, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating registered in mid-August (August 14-19) has dropped for two consecutive months to a record low of 47.0 marks. Regarding people's appraisal of the HKSAR Government's performance, 16% of the respondents were satisfied, 52% were dissatisfied, 26% said "half-half", while 6% did not give a definite answer. Compared to the result registered in July, the dissatisfaction figure has increased significantly by nine percentage points to reach a record high.

Meanwhile, people's trust in the HKSAR Government has continued to drop since the beginning of this year. The latest figure registered in mid-August was 31%, while a record high of 37% distrusted the government. It was also the first time that distrust has overtaken trust.

As regards people's trust in the Beijing Central Government, the latest results showed that 37% of the respondents trusted the Beijing Central Government, 28% not, and 24% said "half-half". Compared with the results registered in mid-June, the trust level has dropped by eight percentage points, but has remained higher than that of the local government.

The new survey reported in the POP Site today is a random telephone survey conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of the survey is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the CE rating is plus/minus 1.2 marks, while that of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.