香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk) 發放市民對「民主」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」四項社會指標，及有關法治狀況的最新調查結果，後者是首次在《民意網站》發放。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為七月三十日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對特首董建華及各問責制主要官員的最新評分。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈有關市民對「民主」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」四項社會指標的最新（七月二至三日）評分，以十分為滿分，市民對自由指標的評分明顯高於其他三項，最新數字是7.1分；對安定及民主程度的評價分別是6.2分及6.1分，而對繁榮程度的評價則是5.5分。相較四月初的結果，市民對四項社會指標的評價全面下跌，其中「繁榮」、「自由」、「民主」三項指標的跌幅分別為0.4分、0.3分及0.2分；而「安定」指標則微跌0.1分，跌幅並不顯著。

至於有關法治狀況一系列問題的最新（七月二至三日）調查結果方面，市民對法庭的公正程度、香港的法治程度及司法制度的公平程度之評價，同樣以十分為滿分，三項指標分別得6.7分、6.6分及6.4分。相較四月初的結果，三項指標皆下跌0.2分。綜觀三項指標在回歸後的走勢（可參考按次計算圖表），若以社會的法治程度為三項指標的核心，則巿民明顯認為回歸初期的法治程度最高，接近7.2分，及後呈波浪形走勢，先在九九年七月第一次跌至谷底，有6.1分，然後約大半年後回升至峰頂6.6分，再在零零年十月跌回谷底6.1分，然後再徐徐回升至現時6.6分。數字顯示巿民對法治的信心受過兩次沖擊後，仍然未能回復回歸初期的水平。不過，以巿民對法庭公正程度的評價計，本地法庭並未受到嚴重的打擊。

另一方面，市民對終審法院首席法官李國能的支持程度，七月中（七月十至十五日）的數字為60.6分，較六月中輕微上升0.1分，幾乎沒有變化。綜觀市民對李國能一年半來的評分趨勢（可參考按次計算圖表），其得分一直保持穩定，於58至62分之間窄幅徘徊。值得一提的是，李國能的認知率偏低，接近半數被訪者未能對其作出評分。

有關今日公佈的三項有關法治狀況的指標，屬於定期「社會指標」調查的一部分，民意研究計劃只是將其分開處理，結合終審法院首席法官李國能的評分一併公佈，成為「香港法治狀況調查系列」，作為民意監察的一個新環節。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，全部屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，各項調查的受訪人數都超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，各項社會指標的抽樣誤差為少於正負0.12分；而終審法院首席法官李國能評分的抽樣誤差則為正負1.4分。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest results of four subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity", and "stability", as well as findings from a series of questions related to the rule of law in Hong Kong, which are released on-line for the first time. Our normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be July 30, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

According to the survey findings released today, of the four subjective social indicators on Hong Kong's degree of "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability", in early July (July 2-3), people were much more positive about the degree of freedom than the other three items. The latest score for freedom was 7.1 on a scale from 0-10. Meanwhile, stability and democracy scored 6.2 and 6.1 respectively, and prosperity 5.5. Compared with the results registered in early April, the ratings of all four indicators have dropped. "Prosperity", "freedom" and "democracy" dropped by 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2 marks respectively, whilst "stability" dropped slightly by 0.1 mark, which was statistically insignificant.

As regards the latest results of a series of questions related to the rule of law, the average scores of people's appraisal of the impartiality of the courts, compliance with the rule of law and the fairness of the judicial system were 6.7, 6.6 and 6.4 marks respectively, on a scale from 0-10. Compared with the results of early April, they all decreased by 0.2 mark. On the macro level (please see the charts with per-poll figures), and taking compliance with the rule of law as the core indicator of the three, there is no doubt that people's appraisal of the rule of law was the highest shortly after the handover, with a score of almost 7.2 marks. Thereafter, there were cyclic fluctuations. It first dropped to a record low of 6.1 in July 1999, then went up to 6.6 after more than half a year, then dropped to 6.1 again in October 2000, and then gradually recovered to the current level of 6.6 marks. This shows that the rule of law has not fully recovered after two blows after the handover. People's appraisal of the impartiality of the local courts, however, has not suffered much.

On the other hand, the popularity rating of Chief Justice Andrew Li Kowk-nang registered in mid-July (July 10-15) was 60.6 marks, a slight increase of 0.1 mark from that of mid-June, which was statistically insignificant. On the macro level (please see the charts with per-poll figures), CJ Andrew Li Kowk-nang's ratings have remained fairly stable over the past one and a half years, in the narrow range of 58 to 62 marks. His recognition rate, however, is not quite high, as almost half of the respondents could not give him a rating.

The set of questions related to the rule of law released today is part of our regular "social indicators" survey. POP is now publishing them separately, in conjunction with the rating of CJ Andrew Li Kowk-nang, to form the new "Series on the Rule of Law in Hong Kong". We take that to be a new and important part of the public's monitoring system.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of the social indicators is less than plus/minus 0.12 mark, while that of the rating of CJ Andrew Li Kowk-nang is plus/minus 1.4 marks. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.