香港大學民意研究計劃今日如期在《港大民意網站》(http://hkupop.hku.hk)發放市民對中港前途信心、台灣獨立及兩岸統一的最新調查結果。《民意網站》一般逢星期二下午二時於網上公佈定期調查結果，公眾假期除外，並同時預告來週的發放項目。《民意網站》會定期對該等安排作出檢討及調整。

按照計劃，《民意網站》下次發放數據的日期及時間為七月十六日星期二下午二時，屆時將會公佈市民對特首董建華的最新評分、市民對特區政府及立法會議員整體表現滿意程度的最新調查結果。

根據《民意網站》今日發佈的最新調查結果，在六月中旬（六月十七至十九日），四成七被訪市民表示對香港前途有信心，較四月中下降五個百分比；至於市民對中國前途的信心，六月下旬（六月二十六至二十八日）的最新數字為七成四，較四月中大幅下跌十個百分比，但仍遠高於對香港前途的信心。

至於市民對台灣獨立的意見，六月中（六月十七至十九日）的最新數字為六成六反對、一成六贊成、一成九沒有意見；與三月中的數字比較，反對者下降五個百分比。調查亦發現，四成半被訪市民表示對兩岸統一有信心；表示沒有信心的，佔三成七；其餘一成八則沒有意見。與三月中的數字比較，正面樂觀者下降九個百分比。

《民意網站》今日所載的最新調查，全部屬於訪員執行的隨機抽樣電話訪問，目標對象皆為十八歲或以上之操粵語的香港市民，各項調查的受訪人數都超過一千人。在九成半置信水平下，各個百分比的抽樣誤差都少於正負三個百分比。所謂「九成半置信水平」，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次的結果會在正負誤差之內。各界人士如對《民意網站》所載調查的方法有任何疑問，研究組的成員會樂於解答，但不會在現階段就調查結果作出評述。此等安排將會在人手充裕後再作檢討。《民意網站》由民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀博士負責，與香港大學立場無關。

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest results on people's confidence in Hong Kong's and China's future, their opinions towards the independence of Taiwan and cross-strait reunification. Our normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly.

According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be July 16, 2002, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government and members of the Legislative Council in general will be released.

According to the survey findings released today, in mid-June (June 17-19), 47% of the respondents expressed confidence in Hong Kong's future, a drop of five percentage points from that of mid-April. Regarding people's confidence in the future of China, the figures registered in late June (June 26-28) showed that 74% were confident, which was a significant drop of ten percentage points from that of mid-April, but still much higher than that for Hong Kong's future.

As regards the independence of Taiwan, the latest results of mid-June (June 17-19) revealed that 66% of the respondents opposed, 16% agreed, while 19% did not give an answer. When compared with the results of mid-March, the proportion of respondents who opposed has decreased by five percentage points. Results also revealed that 45% of the respondents were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait, 37% were not, and the remaining 18% did not give an answer. When compared with the results of mid-March, those who were optimistic on this issue have dropped by nine percentage points.

All new surveys reported in the POP Site today are random telephone surveys conducted by interviewers, targeting at Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The sample size of all surveys is over 1,000 respondents. At 95% confidence level, the sampling error of all percentages is less than plus/minus 3 percentage points. That means if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not comment on the findings at this stage. Such an arrangement would be reviewed when more resources are available. Please note that Dr CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is solely responsible for the work published in the POP Site, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.